Sport nationTitle: Everton’s Reduced Points Deduction Shakes Up Premier League Relegation Battle
Everton Football Club received a major boost in their fight for Premier League survival on Monday when an independent commission reduced their points deduction from 10 to 6 points following a successful appeal. The Merseyside club had been hit with the record 10-point penalty in November for breaching the league’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) by losing £124.5 million over a three-year period, exceeding the permitted £105 million threshold[1][17].
The reduced punishment lifted Everton from 17th to 15th in the table, giving them some much-needed breathing room above the relegation zone with 25 points, now 5 clear of 18th-placed Luton Town[1][5]. The Toffees labeled the original 10-point sanction “wholly disproportionate and unjust” and were “satisfied” the appeal resulted in a more reasonable penalty, while still feeling “vindicated” that the commission overturned their finding that Everton had been “less than frank” in some of their financial submissions[5].
Everton’s legal team, led by KC Laurence Rabinowitz, successfully argued against the scale of the deduction by pointing to precedents in the EFL, where clubs breaching spending rules faced a sliding scale starting at 3 points and capped at 12 points maximum[2]. They contended that a 10-point penalty for a first-time offense of this nature by a Premier League club was excessive and not in line with punishments at other levels of the English football pyramid.
While Everton and their supporters celebrated Monday’s legal victory, the case shone a harsh spotlight on the club’s precarious financial situation in recent years. Everton lost a staggering £371.8 million between 2018-2021, over three times the allowable amount, as owner Farhad Moshiri’s free-spending approach failed to deliver results on the pitch[13]. The club’s losses were exacerbated when Moshiri’s business partner Alisher Usmanov was sanctioned for ties to Vladimir Putin, severing lucrative sponsorship deals[13].
Everton now face a second Premier League charge for the 2021-22 season as well, meaning another points deduction could still be coming[5]. But for now, manager Sean Dyche and his squad are focused on securing their top-flight status for another year. The reduced penalty makes that task more manageable, though Everton still face a challenging run-in.
According to Opta’s predicted final table, which simulates the season thousands of times based on each team’s remaining fixtures, Everton now have just a 4.4% chance of relegation following the 4 points restored to their total[4]. That’s down significantly from the 16.4% relegation probability they faced before the successful appeal. Dyche’s men are now the 6th-most likely team to go down, with Crystal Palace narrowly more at risk at 4.6%[4].
However, Everton’s upcoming schedule is daunting, with clashes against Liverpool and Arsenal still to come[10]. They will likely need to take advantage of more winnable home games against Bournemouth, Fulham, and Wolves to steer clear of the bottom three. Everton’s home form has been vital to their survival hopes, with 22 of their 28 points so far this season coming at Goodison Park[18].
The Toffees’ away record is the worst in the Premier League though, with just 1 win and 11 defeats from 15 road games[18]. Dyche will hope the momentum from Monday’s legal triumph can carry over to improved performances outside of Merseyside. Despite their lowly position, Everton’s underlying numbers suggest they are better than their record shows.
The Toffees rank 10th in shots taken (167), 9th in shots on target (57), and have missed the 5th-most big chances (22) in the league[20]. Their expected goals (xG) metrics are also solid, but poor finishing has let them down, with a shot conversion rate of just 8.4%[20]. If Everton can start taking their chances more clinically, they have the defensive organization to grind out results.
Only 8 teams have conceded fewer goals than Everton’s 17 this season, and their average of 12.4 shots faced per game is 7th-best in the league[20]. Dyche has made them characteristically stingy at the back, just as he did in his years at Burnley. Summer signing James Tarkowski and youngster Jarrad Branthwaite have formed a solid partnership in central defense[9].
Everton’s relegation rivals were less than thrilled to see the club’s points deduction reduced. 19th-placed Burnley, now 5 points adrift of safety, were especially aggrieved after suffering their own 3-point penalty in the Championship last season[18]. The three clubs relegated in 2022-23 – Leicester City, Leeds United and Southampton – are also reportedly considering legal action to seek compensation, arguing Everton’s sanction should have been applied last year[17].
The Everton case, and the Premier League’s handling of it, has raised concerns about consistency and transparency in the enforcement of financial rules. Some have accused the league of hastily introducing an arbitrary points-based punishment system last August in response to Everton’s specific case[14]. The league’s chief executive Richard Masters was criticized for refusing to share details of the process with a government committee[14].
There are also fears that the Premier League has now set a precedent that could lead to far harsher sanctions for Manchester City, who face a staggering 115 charges for alleged financial rule-breaking[14]. Some have simplistically suggested that if Everton warrant a 10-point penalty for one season of excessive losses, City could be docked over 1000 points for their reported decade of infractions. In reality, the cases are quite different, with City accused of concealing revenue and costs to deceive the league, not simply overspending[14].
Nonetheless, the Everton outcome ramps up pressure on the Premier League to thoroughly investigate and seriously punish any wrongdoing by City and other clubs. The league prides itself on financial sustainability, competitive integrity, and attracting stable ownership, but those principles are undermined if the rules are not properly enforced[14]. Trust in the regulation of the sport is at stake.
For now though, Everton will be relieved to put this chapter behind them and focus on the fight for survival. The Toffees were founding members of the Premier League in 1992 and have never been relegated from the top-flight in their 145-year history[17]. Preserving that proud record amid financial turmoil would be a significant achievement for Dyche and the club.
The next three months will be pivotal, with Everton likely needing to win at least 4-5 more games to guarantee safety. Their destiny is still very much in their own hands though, especially with a 6-point buffer on the bottom three. If they can tighten up their away form and convert more of the chances they create, the Toffees should have just enough quality to beat the drop once again. But this season’s close shave should serve as a wake-up call to get the club’s financial house in order for the long-term.
The Premier League now has some serious questions to answer about its oversight of ownership and spending. Everton’s points deduction, and the potential for further sanctions against the likes of Man City and Chelsea, could radically reshape the table this season and beyond. But the league must be consistent and transparent in its rulings to maintain the integrity of the competition. The financial sustainability of clubs, and faith in the fairness of the sport, depends on getting these big decisions right. The Everton verdict is an important test case that will reverberate through English football.
Citations:
[1] https://theathletic.com/5302391/2024/02/27/premier-league-relegation-predictions-everton/
[2] https://theathletic.com/5300671/2024/02/27/everton-psr-appeal-forest-commission/
[3] https://fbref.com/en/squads/d3fd31cc/Everton-Stats
[4] https://theanalyst.com/na/2024/02/everton-points-deduction-premier-league-survival-chances/
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/feb/26/everton-boosted-after-premier-league-deduction-reduced-from-10-to-six-points
[6] https://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england&stats=9-everton
[7] https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/everton-points-deduction-appeal-farcical-premier-league-relegation-battle-circus/blt6fd9a82c54a5f2e9
[8] https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/everton-forest-face-points-deduction-after-being-charged-breaching-premier-2024-01-15/
[9] https://www.whoscored.com/Teams/31/Show/England-Everton
[10] https://www.nottinghampost.com/sport/football/football-news/nottingham-forests-toughest-fixtures-compared-9162275
[11] https://www.reddit.com/r/TheOther14/comments/1b0hk4u/sky_news_everton_football_clubs_10point_deduction/
[12] https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/everton/form-guide
[13] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/26/sports/soccer/premier-league-relegation-everton.html
[14] https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/38944119/everton-premier-league-points-deduction-charges-explained
[15] https://www.premierleague.com/clubs/7/Everton/stats
[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOT0IVDKA4U
[17] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/17/world/europe/everton-points-deduction.html
[18] https://www.planetsport.com/soccer/news/analysis-premier-league-relegation-battle-can-burnley-still-send-everton
[19] https://www.chambersstudent.co.uk/commercial-awareness-memo/the-memo-everton-s-point-deduction-and-its-impact-on-english-football
[20] https://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2023/nov/14/everton-relegation-table-sean-dyche-team
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