“Burnley has a better chance than Everton because. ” Martin Keown gives disheartening about Everton chances of staying in the league next season

    “No chance to stay up because….” Martin Keown gives disheartening about Everton chances of staying in the league next season

    Martin Keown’s comments about the potential impact of points deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest on the Premier League relegation battle, particularly for Burnley:

    Keown: Points Deductions Could Bring Burnley Back Into Relegation Fight

    Former Arsenal and England defender Martin Keown has suggested that potential points deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest due to alleged breaches of the Premier League’s financial fair play rules could give relegation-threatened Burnley a lifeline in their battle to avoid the drop.

    Speaking on BBC’s Final Score program on March 16th, 2024, Keown offered a contrasting view to fellow pundit Chris Sutton’s earlier assertion that Burnley had “no chance” of staying up this season.

    “Chris was saying at the start of today that they had no chance of staying up,” Keown noted. “He’s probably right, but let’s see what happens with the deductions from the teams above them, they’ve got a chance.”

    Keown’s comments came in the wake of Burnley’s crucial 2-1 victory over Brentford that same afternoon, a result that lifted Vincent Kompany’s side to 25 points from 29 games. Despite the win, the Clarets remain 5 points adrift of 18th-placed Luton Town and 8 points from safety with only 9 matches remaining.

    While acknowledging the scale of the task still facing Burnley, Keown believes the unresolved disciplinary charges hanging over Everton and Nottingham Forest could yet prove pivotal in the final analysis of the relegation picture.

    The Charges Explained

    In January 2024, the Premier League announced that both Everton and newly-promoted Nottingham Forest had been charged with alleged breaches of the Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) during the 2022/23 season.

    The PSR regulations stipulate that clubs cannot sustain losses in excess of £105 million over a rolling three-year period, equating to £35 million per season. For clubs newly promoted from the EFL like Forest, the permitted losses are set at a lower threshold of £61 million over three years.

    Everton, currently 16th in the Premier League table on 34 points, are facing their second PSR charge of the campaign. The Toffees were docked 10 points in November 2023 for prior breaches relating to the period from 2019-20 to 2021-22, a sanction they are currently appealing.

    The latest charge against Everton covers the three-year timeframe from 2019-20 to 2022-23, prompting accusations of “double jeopardy” as it encompasses seasons already punished in their previous case. The club is expected to cite several mitigating factors, including:

    1) Interest payments on loans taken out to finance the construction of their new £500m stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock.
    2) Loss of commercial income from sponsorship deals terminated due to Alisher Usmanov’s links to the Russian regime following the invasion of Ukraine.
    3) Significant player sales completed in the 2022-23 financial year that helped offset their overall losses.

    For Nottingham Forest, who sit one place and five points above the relegation zone in 17th, their charge centers primarily around the £47.5m sale of homegrown star Brennan Johnson to Tottenham Hotspur in September 2023.

    Crucially, Johnson’s transfer fell just outside the June 30th cut-off date for the 2022/23 assessment period. Forest are set to argue that had they accepted an earlier £30m offer from Brentford for Johnson, they would have complied with the £61m loss limit.

    However, by holding out for a higher fee after the deadline, the profit from Johnson’s move was not counted towards offsetting the approximately £250m Forest spent on 43 new players following their promotion. This left them exposed to a charge for exceeding the permitted losses.

    The Disciplinary Process

    Both clubs’ cases will be heard by independent commissions appointed by the Premier League, with the proceedings conducted in private. If found guilty, the potential sanctions range from financial penalties and transfer embargoes to points deductions or even expulsion from the league in the most egregious scenarios.

    Nottingham Forest’s hearing took place over two days on March 7-8, with a verdict expected in early April. Everton’s hearing dates have yet to be confirmed, but the Premier League is determined to conclude all outstanding cases, including any appeals, by May 24th – just five days after the season ends.

    This raises the prospect of points deductions being applied retrospectively once the campaign is over, an unprecedented situation that could transform the final relegation standings after the fact.

    Relegation Ramifications

    While the outcomes of the Everton and Forest cases remain uncertain, it’s clear that points deductions of any magnitude would have a profound impact on the complexion of the relegation dogfight.

    Consider a scenario where Everton’s appeal against their initial 10-point penalty is rejected and they incur an additional 6-point deduction for the latest charge. This would leave the Toffees languishing on 28 points, just 3 above the drop zone.

    If Forest were then docked 9 points, they would plummet to 30 points. Suddenly, the bottom of the table would be extraordinarily congested, with Everton, Forest, Luton, Bournemouth and Burnley all separated by a mere 5 points.

    Such an outcome would vindicate Keown’s assessment that points deductions could bring Burnley back into the equation, although they would still need a remarkable upturn in form to capitalize on their rivals’ misfortune.

    Realistically, Burnley would likely need to win at least 4 of their remaining 9 games to accrue the 38 points that have guaranteed safety in each of the last 5 seasons. With fixtures against Manchester City, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool still to come, that appears a daunting proposition for a side that has struggled for consistency throughout the campaign.

    Nonetheless, if the points deductions materialize and Burnley can use the Brentford victory as a springboard, the seemingly impossible dream of a great escape might just come into focus.

    Everton on the Brink

    For Everton, the specter of a points deduction is compounded by their alarming slide down the table since the turn of the year. The Toffees are winless in their last 11 league outings, a barren run stretching back to a 2-1 triumph over Southampton on December 16th.

    New boss Sean Dyche, who replaced the sacked Frank Lampard in late January, has thus far been unable to inspire a revival. He has bemoaned an injury crisis that has deprived him of influential figures like Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Amadou Onana and Michael Keane for prolonged spells.

    However, there is a growing fear among Evertonians that even a lenient outcome in their financial fair play case may not be sufficient to stave off the unthinkable if they cannot rapidly rediscover a winning formula on the pitch.

    Should their current malaise persist, Everton could find themselves cut adrift at the foot of the table irrespective of any points deductions. The unpalatable prospect of a first relegation since 1951 is becoming an ever more ominous possibility.

    The Wider Context

    The Everton and Nottingham Forest cases have significant implications that extend far beyond the immediate fate of the clubs involved. The verdicts could shape the future landscape of financial regulation in the Premier League.

    The PSR framework has been a lightning rod for controversy since its introduction in 2013. Critics argue that the loss limits are too draconian and stifle ambition, while advocates maintain they are a vital safeguard against reckless spending and the existential threat of a breakaway European Super League.

    These high-profile charges have thrust the debate back into the spotlight, particularly around the suitability of the £105m loss limit over three years. Some have called for a more nuanced approach that assesses each club’s financial sustainability based on their individual circumstances and resources, rather than a one-size-fits-all cap.

    There is also an argument for greater flexibility for newly-promoted sides like Forest, giving them more latitude to invest in establishing themselves as viable Premier League entities.

    On the flip side, there are concerns that any slackening of the rules could trigger a spending arms race and a rise in creative accounting as clubs push the boundaries of what is permissible. This could ultimately undermine the sporting integrity of the competition.

    Much will depend on the precedents set by the independent commissions in their judgments on Everton and Forest, especially in terms of what qualifies as legitimate mitigating factors for breaching the loss ceiling.

    The severity of the punishments handed down will also send a strong signal about the Premier League’s resolve to enforce its financial regulations robustly going forward. This could have major knock-on effects for the ongoing investigation into Manchester City’s alleged PSR breaches dating back to 2018.

    Depending on the outcomes, we could be on the cusp of a sea change in how clubs approach their financial and recruitment strategies to comply with a new regulatory reality. The Everton and Forest cases have the potential to be a watershed moment that defines the economic parameters of the English game for years to come.

    Conclusion

    As the Premier League enters the final furlong of the 2023/24 season, the sword of Damocles of points deductions hangs precariously over Everton and Nottingham Forest. If the charges against them are upheld and the sanctions are severe, it could unleash an unprecedented scenario where the relegation battle is radically redrawn after the final whistle has blown.

    For Burnley, clinging to their top-flight status by their fingernails, the faintest glimmer of hope still flickers. While their fate remains firmly in their own hands, the knowledge that points deductions could drag their rivals back into the mire will be a powerful motivator for the run-in.

    Everton and Forest, meanwhile, find themselves in the unenviable position of fighting a war on two fronts – the struggle to secure survival on the pitch and the battle to mitigate the damage off it.

    Yet the ramifications of these cases will reverberate far beyond the immediate relegation dogfight. The judgments handed down will not only determine the extent of the punishments for breaching the financial rules, but will also define the parameters for clubs’ spending and business models for seasons to come.

    At this critical juncture for the world’s most lucrative domestic league, the Everton and Nottingham Forest cases could mark a pivotal moment in striking the delicate equilibrium between sporting fairness and financial firepower. The aftershocks may be felt in boardrooms across the land long after the final ball has been kicked.

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