“Struggling like crazy…” Paul Merson makes ‘Crazy’ Everton relegation prediction live on Sky Sports

Paul Merson makes ‘Crazy’ Everton relegation prediction live on Sky Sports

Paul Merson, the former Arsenal and England midfielder turned football pundit, has made a bold and somewhat surprising prediction about the relegation battle in the Premier League this season. While appearing live on Sky Sports’ Soccer Saturday program on March 16th, 2024, Merson stated that he believes Luton Town, currently sitting in 18th place, will manage to avoid the drop and stay in the top flight next season.

This proclamation comes as a shock to many, considering Luton are playing in their first Premier League campaign in over 30 years after earning promotion last season. Most pundits and fans expected them to struggle mightily and be one of the favorites for relegation. However, Merson sees something in the Hatters that gives him confidence they can beat the odds.

“It’s all about timing, it’s when you play someone,” Merson explained. “You’ll remember, not long ago, Bournemouth were struggling like crazy. Then they go and play Newcastle at home with 11 players out. They beat Newcastle and they started their run up the table.”

Merson is referring to Bournemouth’s surprise 1-0 victory over Newcastle United back in early February, when the Magpies were missing a host of key players due to injury. That win kicked off a strong run of form for the Cherries, who have climbed out of the relegation zone and up to 13th place in the table.

The former England international sees Luton being capable of engineering a similar turnaround in the final stretch of the season. A major reason for his optimism is Luton’s remaining schedule.

“At the moment I think Luton get out of it. I like their fixtures,” Merson said. “I think they’re a different beast at home and I think they win today and they’re right, right, right in this.”

Merson made this prediction ahead of Luton’s crucial home match against Nottingham Forest on March 16th. He expected Luton to get a vital victory that would move them within one point of safety. The Hatters have been very strong at Kenilworth Road, their home ground, picking up 17 of their 21 points this season in front of their fans.

Looking at their remaining fixtures, Luton still have home games against Crystal Palace, Brentford, Burnley and Bournemouth – all teams in the bottom half of the table. They will fancy their chances of picking up points in those matches. Their away schedule is tougher, with trips to Manchester United, Tottenham and West Ham, but Merson believes they have the spirit and togetherness to potentially spring an upset or two.

While Merson is backing Luton to stay up, he delivered an ominous warning for one of their relegation rivals – Everton. The Toffees are currently in 16th place, four points above the drop zone, but critically they have played one more match than Luton and the other teams around them.

Everton had six points deducted earlier in the season for breaching the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules. Without that penalty, they would be sitting much more comfortably in 12th place. But as things stand, Merson is very concerned about their prospects.

“My worry would be Everton because they keep on going under the radar and they keep on losing football matches,” he said. “And the worrying thing is sometimes they keep on playing well and they’re losing football matches. That’s even more of a worry. For me, I think Luton still get out of it.”

Everton’s form in recent months has been dreadful. They are winless in their last 11 Premier League games, a run stretching back to early January. In that span, they’ve picked up just three points from a possible 33. It’s a shocking decline for a team that looked to have turned the corner under manager Sean Dyche.

Dyche took over from the sacked Frank Lampard at the end of January and oversaw a new manager bounce, with Everton beating league leaders Arsenal 1-0 in his first match in charge. However, things have unraveled spectacularly since then. The Toffees have lost three games in a row heading into the international break, falling to Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle.

Most concerning has been the manner of those defeats. Against Villa and Forest, Everton actually played quite well for large stretches and had plenty of chances to score. But a failure to take those opportunities, combined with sloppy defending, saw them come away empty-handed. In the Newcastle game, they were simply outclassed by a Magpies side pushing for Champions League qualification.

The underlying numbers paint a grim picture for Everton. No team in the Premier League has underperformed their expected goals (xG) by a wider margin this season. Based on the quality of chances they’ve created, Everton’s xG says they should have scored around 37 goals. In reality, they’ve managed just 29. That eight goal shortfall is the biggest negative discrepancy in the division.

At the other end, only four teams have conceded more goals than Everton’s 39. They’ve been shipping goals at an alarming rate during their winless run, letting in 16 in their last six matches. For a team with designs on a comfortable mid-table finish, Everton’s defensive record simply isn’t good enough.

Merson usually tends to back Dyche and Everton when discussing the relegation scrap, so it’s telling that he has real doubts about their survival chances this time. The former Burnley boss has a reputation as a firefighter capable of organizing a struggling team and grinding out the results needed to stay up. He did it season after season with the Clarets on a shoestring budget.

But Everton feels like a different challenge altogether. This is an expensively assembled squad, albeit one that has been haphazardly thrown together through years of poor recruitment. The fans expect attractive, front-foot football at Goodison Park and many have been unimpressed with Dyche’s more pragmatic approach.

The toxic atmosphere in the stands certainly hasn’t helped matters. Everton supporters have grown increasingly frustrated with the club’s direction under owner Farhad Moshiri. Protests against the board have been a regular occurrence and the team has often looked shorn of confidence on the pitch, especially at home.

With all that in mind, Merson’s fears about Everton’s predicament are understandable. The Merseyside club have been flirting with relegation for a few seasons now, only narrowly avoiding the drop last year thanks to a late rally under Lampard. The concern is that their luck may finally run out this time around.

The upcoming international break has probably come at a good time for Dyche and his players. It gives them a chance to reset, take stock of their situation and try to build some momentum for the run-in. They don’t play again until hosting Tottenham on April 3rd, a match that already feels like a must-win.

Everton’s final 10 fixtures are something of a mixed bag. They still have to face Manchester United, Newcastle, Brighton, Manchester City and Wolves – all teams in the top half – as well as tricky away games at Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. But there are also potentially winnable home matches against Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth again on the final day.

Much will depend on whether Dyche can get his key players firing again. The likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Demarai Gray, Dwight McNeil and Amadou Onana have all struggled for form and fitness at various points this season. If they can step up and start contributing goals and assists, Everton will fancy their chances of picking up the points they need to stay afloat.

But there are certainly no guarantees, especially with the teams below them showing signs of life. Nottingham Forest and Leicester have both picked up crucial wins in recent weeks to move out of the bottom three. Bournemouth and Leeds are scrapping for every point. And if Merson is right about Luton, the Hatters could be set to make a real push for survival.

The relegation battle this season has been one of the most fascinating subplots in the Premier League. The bottom half of the table is incredibly congested, with just six points separating Crystal Palace in 14th and Burnley in 19th. Any team that can put together a run of positive results has the chance to pull clear of danger.

Everton will be desperate to ensure they aren’t the ones left with that sinking feeling come the end of May. The club has been ever-present in the Premier League since its inception in 1992 and relegation would be a catastrophic blow, both financially and to the fans’ morale.

The pressure is well and truly on Dyche and his players to turn things around and prove Merson’s gloomy prediction wrong. They have the talent and experience in their squad to get out of trouble, but they need to start showing it on a consistent basis. Scrapping for ugly wins and hard-earned points is the name of the game now.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining Everton’s fate. If they can emerge from the international break refreshed and reenergized, a couple of positive results could be the spark they need to pull away from the trapdoor. But if their miserable run continues, Merson’s fears may well be realized and one of English football’s sleeping giants could be facing up to the unthinkable – life in the Championship.

For Evertonians everywhere, it promises to be a nail-biting conclusion to the campaign. They will cling to the hope that their team has the character and quality to navigate this latest crisis and secure their top-flight status for another year. But with Merson and other pundits starting to doubt them, the alarm bells are ringing loud and clear.

Only time will tell if Everton can answer the call and prove their doubters wrong. The stakes could hardly be higher as they enter the final furlong of a rollercoaster season. Strap in and hold on tight, Blues fans. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Citations:
[1] https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/everton-relegation-leicester-prediction-merson-26808015
[2] https://www.evertonfc.com/standings
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[4] https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/paul-merson-agrees-two-pundits-28785607
[5] https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/everton-team-standings
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[7] https://www.sportbible.com/football/paul-merson-premier-league-score-predictions-fan-reaction-478419-20230526
[8] https://www.fctables.com/teams/everton-184479/
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[10] https://metro.co.uk/2023/05/25/paul-merson-premier-league-predictions-final-day-season-18846147/
[11] https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/teams/everton/table
[12] https://news.bet365.com/en-gb/article/luton-relegation-odds-hatters-11-to-8-to-survive-after-hammer-blow/2024031411452911542
[13] https://onefootball.com/en/news/i-dont-see-paul-merson-makes-extraordinary-liverpool-vs-everton-prediction-38420954
[14] https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/everton/league-table
[15] https://www.football.london/arsenal-fc/news/everton-arsenal-score-prediction-dyche-27726779
[16] https://www.premierleague.com/tables
[17] https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/paul-merson-makes-everton-failure-26259134
[18] https://tribuna.com/en/clubs/everton/table/
[19] https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/merson-man-utd-everton-prediction-31518953
[20] https://www.skysports.com/premier-league-table