Sport nationEverton find themselves in a precarious position heading into the final stretch of the 2023-24 Premier League season. With just 10 matches remaining, the Toffees sit 16th in the table on 25 points, only three points above the relegation zone currently occupied by Nottingham Forest (24 pts), Luton Town (21 pts) and Burnley (14 pts)[5][8].
Everton’s poor run of form has seen them go winless in their last nine Premier League matches (4 draws, 5 losses) since a four-game winning streak in December[8]. Their struggles in front of goal have been a major issue, with the club failing to score in six of those nine winless games[8].
The Toffees did manage to stop the rot somewhat with a 1-1 home draw against Crystal Palace on February 19th. However, they needed a late Amadou Onana header to salvage a point after falling behind[8]. This followed disappointing 1-1 draws away to relegation rivals Brighton and Fulham in their previous two matches.
Everton now face a daunting run of fixtures to close out the season as they battle to avoid the drop. Their next five Premier League games are[1][9][11][13][15][17]:
- March 30: Away vs Bournemouth
- April 2: Away vs Newcastle United
- April 6: Home vs Burnley
- April 15: Away vs Chelsea
- April 20: Home vs Nottingham Forest
This stretch includes tough away trips to top half sides Bournemouth, Newcastle and Chelsea. Picking up points on the road has been a major issue for Everton, with just one win and eight points from 14 away games so far[5].
The home matches against fellow strugglers Burnley and Nottingham Forest in early April will likely prove pivotal. Positive results in those six-pointers could provide Everton some breathing room above the bottom three.
However, Nottingham Forest will be no pushovers, despite currently occupying 17th place. Forest are coming off a gutting 1-1 draw away to Luton Town on March 16th, conceding a 90th minute equalizer after leading for much of the match through a Chris Wood goal[1][2][4][12][14][16][18][20].
That result means there are now just three points separating 17th place Forest and 18th place Luton in the relegation zone[1][8]. Forest’s inability to close out the win has heaped even more pressure on their upcoming fixtures.
Nottingham Forest’s next five Premier League games are[1][13]:
- March 30: Home vs Crystal Palace
- April 2: Home vs Fulham
- April 8: Away vs Tottenham
- April 13: Home vs Wolves
- April 20: Away vs Everton
The Tricky Trees will be targeting maximum points from their three home games in this stretch, especially against beatable opposition in Palace, Fulham and Wolves. Positive results in those matches would give them a buffer heading into difficult away games at Tottenham and Everton.
However, Forest have struggled mightily on the road this season. Since returning to the Premier League in 2022, they have won just three of 32 away matches, suffering 21 defeats[8]. Turning around that dismal away form will be crucial to their survival hopes.
The other key relegation six-pointer in early April sees Everton host bottom-of-the-table Burnley on April 6th. The Clarets have shown signs of life recently under new manager Vincent Kompany, but still face an uphill battle to avoid the drop, currently eight points from safety[1].
Burnley’s next five Premier League fixtures are[13]:
- March 30: Away vs Man City
- April 3: Home vs West Ham
- April 6: Away vs Everton
- April 13: Home vs Brentford
- April 20: Away vs Sheffield United
With away games against title-chasing Man City and relegation rivals Everton, plus a tough home match vs West Ham, Burnley will likely need to take maximum points from their other two games to give themselves any chance of staying up. Even then, they would need a lot of help from the teams above them dropping points.
The team currently occupying 18th place and the final relegation spot is Luton Town. The Hatters are in their first season back in the top flight since 1992 and have acquitted themselves well overall, but now find themselves in the thick of the relegation dogfight.
Luton’s dramatic 1-1 home draw with Nottingham Forest on March 16th felt like a missed opportunity, as they failed to fully capitalize on Forest’s nervy finish after falling behind[1][2][14][16][20]. The single point gained saw Luton’s chances of relegation decrease slightly to 87%, but they remain in deep trouble[8].
The Hatters’ next five Premier League games are[1][13]:
- March 30: Away vs Tottenham
- April 3: Away vs Arsenal
- April 6: Home vs Bournemouth
- April 13: Away vs Man City
- April 20: Home vs Brentford
This is an absolutely brutal stretch for Luton, featuring three away games against “Big Six” opposition in Tottenham, Arsenal and Man City. Even their two home games are tricky, with Bournemouth flying high in the top half of the table and Brentford always a tough out.
Luton have been in decent form at Kenilworth Road recently, going unbeaten in their last five home league games (2 wins, 3 draws)[8]. They will need to maintain that home strength and pull off a shock result or two on the road to have any chance of clawing their way out of the bottom three.
One other team that can’t be counted out of the relegation scrap yet is 15th place Brentford on 26 points. The Bees have been in dreadful form, losing four of their last five matches, and are now just one point above Everton and the drop zone[1].
Brentford’s upcoming fixtures are[1][13]:
- March 30: Home vs Man Utd
- April 3: Home vs Brighton
- April 6: Away vs Aston Villa
- April 13: Away vs Sheffield United
- April 20: Away vs Luton Town
Three of Brentford’s next five are on the road, where they have really struggled this season, winning just twice in 14 attempts[5]. They will be hoping to take advantage of home games against an inconsistent Man Utd side and a Brighton team with little to play for.
However, if Brentford continue to slide, their away match at Luton on April 20th could turn into a season-defining six-pointer for both clubs. A lot can change between now and then, but it has the makings of a pivotal clash in the relegation battle.
The other team currently level on points with Nottingham Forest and just outside the relegation zone on goal difference is Leeds United[5]. After a bright start under new manager Ange Postecoglou, Leeds have fallen off a cliff, losing six of their last seven league games.
Leeds’ next five Premier League fixtures are[13]:
- April 2: Away vs Arsenal
- April 6: Home vs Liverpool
- April 13: Away vs Fulham
- April 20: Home vs Bournemouth
- April 27: Away vs Man City
This is a very tough run for Leeds, featuring three Big Six opponents and two tricky customers in Fulham and Bournemouth. They will likely need to win their two home games and pull off an upset somewhere to keep their heads above water.
One major wildcard in this whole relegation equation is the potential points deductions facing Everton and Nottingham Forest for breaching Premier League financial rules[1][8].
Everton have already been docked six points this season, which is the only reason they currently find themselves in this relegation battle[1]. They are facing a second financial hearing in late March which could lead to a further deduction[1][8].
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest are also facing a hearing for financial breaches, with a verdict expected to be announced this week[8][14]. If found guilty, they could be hit with a points deduction that would likely plunge them into the relegation places.
These potential points penalties hanging over Everton and Forest only add to the uncertainty and drama of this season’s relegation fight. It means that in addition to getting results on the pitch, these clubs will be relying on their lawyers to argue their cases effectively off it.
When you factor in these looming deductions, it’s no wonder that the likes of Luton Town and their supporters are holding out hope that the courtroom could provide them a lifeline, even if they are unable to escape the drop based on sporting merit alone[14].
The only thing we can say for certain is that there are sure to be plenty more twists and turns in the relegation battle between now and season’s end on May 19th. With so many six-pointers on the schedule and fine margins separating the clubs, every point will be precious.
Buckle up for a nervy, dramatic couple of months as Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town, Burnley, Leeds, Brentford and others scrap for their Premier League lives. The stakes couldn’t be higher, with hundreds of millions in revenue and the prestige of top flight football on the line. In the end, someone’s hearts are sure to be broken, while others will feel the euphoria of pulling off a great escape. The only question is, which clubs will fall into which category?
Citations:
[1] https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/5413945/eb29639b-54a3-466d-b5ec-baec9782fba1/paste.txt
[2] https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/5413945/8adf0345-b944-474f-b760-5799beadb488/paste-2.txt
[3] https://www.skysports.com/everton-fixtures
[4] http://africa.espn.com/football/report//gameId/671317 [5] https://www.squawka.com/en/outright-markets/premier-league-relegation-odds/ [6] https://www.evertonfc.com/fixtures [7] https://www.espn.com/soccer/match//gameId/671118
[8] https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/who-will-be-relegated-from-the-premier-league-2023-24/
[9] https://www.premierleague.com/clubs/7/Everton/fixtures
[10] https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/late-berry-strike-secures-1-1-draw-luton-against-forest-2024-03-16/
[11] https://www.fotmob.com/teams/8668/fixtures/everton
[12] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ6EDnGF-2M
[13] https://www.theguardian.com/football/everton/fixtures
[14] https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/16/luton-nottingham-forest-premier-league-match-report
[15] https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/evertons-next-five-premier-league-28832692
[16] https://www.vavel.com/en-us/live/2024/03/16/1176184-luton-town-vs-nottingham-forest-live-score-updates-in-premier-league-match.html
[17] https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/fixtures/_/id/368/everton
[18] https://www.premierleague.com/news/3931199
[19] https://www.goal.com/en-us/team/everton/fixtures-results/ehd2iemqmschhj2ec0vayztzz
[20] https://sports.yahoo.com/luton-town-vs-nottingham-forest-140008585.html
Sport Nation 2
Sport nation
Austute Man